Thắc mắc về input cho process "Plan Risk Response"

Thuy Men

Well-known member
Mình muốn hỏi phần inputs cho process "Plan Risk Response" chỉ có Risk Management Plan và Risk Register mà không có input từ phần phân tích định lượng và định tính cho risk nhỉ?

Vì theo mình hiểu output của Risk Register đầu ra chỉ có danh sách các risk, độ ưu tiên của risk sẽ có sau process 'Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis" và " Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis".


Trong sách PMP Bok5 có giải thích phần input lấy từ Risk Register : "The risk register refers to identified risks, root causes of risks, lists of potential responses, risk owners, symptoms
and warning signs, the relative rating or priority list of project risks, risks requiring responses in the near term, risks
for additional analysis and response, trends in qualitative analysis results, and a watch list, which is a list of low priority risk within the risk register"
Tuy nhiên khi xem output của Risk Register ở process " Identify Risk" lại không có mention phần "priority list of project risk; watch list"
 

trieuchau

Nhà truyền đạo
[MENTION=25971]Thuy Men[/MENTION]:


Xem mô tả risk register đối với từng process ở bên dưới.
11.2.3 Identify Risks: Outputs 11.2.3.1 Risk Register
The primary output from Identify Risks is the initial entry into the risk register. The risk register is a document in which the results of risk analysis and risk response planning are recorded. It contains the outcomes of the other risk management processes as they are conducted, resulting in an increase in the level and type of information contained in the risk register over time. The preparation of the risk register begins in the Identify Risks process with the following information, and then becomes available to other project management and risk management processes:
List of identified risks. The identified risks are described in as much detail as is reasonable. A structure for describing risks using risk statements may be applied, for example, EVENT may occur causing IMPACT, or If CAUSE exists, EVENT may occur leading to EFFECT. In addition to the list of identified risks, the root causes of those risks may become more evident. These are the fundamental conditions or events that may give rise to one or more identified risks. They should be recorded and used to support future risk identification for this and other projects.
List of potential responses. Potential responses to a risk may sometimes be identified during the Identify Risks process. These responses, if identified in this process, should be used as inputs to the Plan Risk Responses process.


11.3.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Outputs 11.3.3.1 Project Documents Updates
Project documents that may be updated include, but are not limited to:
Risk register updates. As new information becomes available through the qualitative risk assessment, the risk register is updated. Updates to the risk register may include assessments of probability and impacts for each risk, risk ranking or scores, risk urgency information or risk categorization, and a watch list for low probability risks or risks requiring further analysis.


11.4.3 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Outputs 11.4.3.1 Project Documents Updates
Project documents are updated with information resulting from quantitative risk analysis. For example, risk register updates could include:
Probabilistic analysis of the project. Estimates are made of potential project schedule and cost outcomes listing the possible completion dates and costs with their associated confidence levels. This output, often expressed as a cumulative frequency distribution, is used with stakeholder risk tolerances to permit quantification of the cost and time contingency reserves. Such contingency reserves are needed to bring the risk of overrunning stated project objectives to a level acceptable to the organization.
Probability of achieving cost and time objectives. With the risks facing the project, the probability of achieving project objectives under the current plan can be estimated using quantitative risk analysis results. For instance, in Figure 11-17, the likelihood of achieving the cost estimate of US$41 million is about 12%.
Prioritized list of quantified risks. This list includes those risks that pose the greatest threat or present the greatest opportunity to the project. These include the risks that may have the greatest effect on cost contingency and those that are most likely to influence the critical path. These risks may be evaluated, in some cases, through a tornado diagram generated as a result of the simulation analysis.
Trends in quantitative risk analysis results. As the analysis is repeated, a trend may become apparent that leads to conclusions affecting risk responses. Organizational historical information on project schedule, cost, quality, and performance should reflect new insights gained through the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process. Such history may take the form of a quantitative risk analysis report. This report may be separate from, or linked to, the risk register.


TRẢ LỜI CÂU HỎI CỦA CHỊ "Mình muốn hỏi phần inputs cho process "Plan Risk Response" chỉ có Risk Management Plan và Risk Register mà không có input từ phần phân tích định lượng và định tính cho risk nhỉ?"
=> Có phân tích định tính và định lượng đó chị, ở "The risk register refers to identified risks, root causes of risks, lists of potential responses, risk owners, symptoms and warning signs, the relative rating or priority list of project risks, risks requiring responses in the near term, risks for additional analysis and response, trends in qualitative analysis results, and a watch list, which is a list of low-priority risks within the risk register" như:
- Updates to the risk register may include assessments of probability and impacts for each risk, risk ranking or scores, risk urgency information or risk categorization, and a watch list for low probability risks or risks requiring further analysis.
- Probabilistic analysis of the project. Estimates are made of potential project schedule and cost outcomes listing the possible completion dates and costs with their associated confidence levels. This output, often expressed as a cumulative frequency distribution, is used with stakeholder risk tolerances to permit quantification of the cost and time contingency reserves. Such contingency reserves are needed to bring the risk of overrunning stated project objectives to a level acceptable to the organization.
- Probability of achieving cost and time objectives. With the risks facing the project, the probability of achieving project objectives under the current plan can be estimated using quantitative risk analysis results. For instance, in Figure 11-17, the likelihood of achieving the cost estimate of US$41 million is about 12%.
- Prioritized list of quantified risks. This list includes those risks that pose the greatest threat or present the greatest opportunity to the project. These include the risks that may have the greatest effect on cost contingency and those that are most likely to influence the critical path. These risks may be evaluated, in some cases, through a tornado diagram generated as a result of the simulation analysis.
- Trends in quantitative risk analysis results. As the analysis is repeated, a trend may become apparent that leads to conclusions affecting risk responses. Organizational historical information on project schedule, cost, quality, and performance should reflect new insights gained through the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process. Such history may take the form of a quantitative risk analysis report. This report may be separate from, or linked to, the risk register.


Về phần "Tuy nhiên khi xem output của Risk Register ở process " Identify Risk" lại không có mention phần "priority list of project risk; watch list" => "priority list of project risk; watch list" là output ở process Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis.
 

Thuy Men

Well-known member
[MENTION=88]trieuchau[/MENTION]: Vậy có thể hiểu input của process " Plan Risk Response" này chính là tài liệu " Risk Register updates" (tài liệu này được update sau mỗi lần phân tích định tính và định lượng) chứ không phải tài liệu output từ process "Identify Risk"
 

xiucoi

Member
theo em hiểu thì tất cả kết quả phân tích của các process Qualitative, Quantitative đã được update hết vào Risk Register rồi. Kể cả output của Response Plan cũng được cập nhật vào Risk Register

Đá xiên xẹo tí là Risk Register đc cập nhật và làm rõ xuyên suốt qua các process qualitative, quantitative, response plan...

Riêng trong phần Identify Risk thì có thêm thông tin "potential response" đc viết trong Risk Register
 
Sửa lần cuối:

trieuchau

Nhà truyền đạo
[MENTION=88]trieuchau[/MENTION]: Vậy có thể hiểu input của process " Plan Risk Response" này chính là tài liệu " Risk Register updates" (tài liệu này được update sau mỗi lần phân tích định tính và định lượng) chứ không phải tài liệu output từ process "Identify Risk"
Đúng rồi. Mô tả của phần input này có nói rõ. Họ bị sai ở chỗ Flow Diagram nhưng phần mô tả thì chính xác.
 

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